If a ship sinks, you can help the shipwrecked crew with lifebuoys and inflatable boats in the first step. In order to let the crew go about their previous work again, they need their old or a new ship. Pictorial comparisons always lag a bit, but the growth acceleration law has primarily the effect of a lifebuoy on the biofuels industry, which protects the industry from drowning.
But how should the industry continue politically? Would you like the previous biofuel crew, which has had several major storms in recent years (here to the article) experienced and had a lot of experience, support for a new expedition with the help of tax subsidies (investments) or wait until the specialists have to turn to other things?
Growth Acceleration Act
The effect of the growth acceleration law for biofuels is that the Tax charge for bio-fuels (B100, vegetable oils) stabilized at 2012 cents / liter until 18 and is not increased as previously planned. Compared to the current sales situation, this will probably not result in new growth, but compared to the future scenario of the tax increase, sales will not decrease further.
Brandenburg and Bavaria
The disappointment among producers and distributors of pure organic fuels is great, because only two months ago there was hope for a real one Market revival authorized by a reduction in tax to 8-10 cents / liter and very large. Federal states such as Brandenburg and Bavaria had campaigned for a stronger reduction in tax, but were not yet able to assert themselves in the Federal Council with this significant boost for the industry.
The current political status is that there will be a change during the year further revision of taxation from biofuels. In such a case, the tax amount can be reduced to half (8-10 cents / liter).
I believe that the growth acceleration law and the efforts of some federal states show that the industry's great opportunities are recognized and will be realized in the medium term. The industry has been through so many in recent years morally grueling discussions (which were mostly not triggered by political measures!) that many politicians probably still lack the courage or confidence to invest in this industry.
Of course one can talk about the political weight and the influence of the Petroleum lobby disappointed or upset, but that doesn't help the biofuels industry. Over the next few decades, biofuels are a sensible and safe way of ensuring economically acceptable and ecologically sustainable mobility. This alternative will also pave its way politically in the medium term.
If so in 40 years Electric Mobility to the extent that it can really replace biofuels, it would be just as much time for the industry as it is for petroleum-based fuels to clear the way today. In my opinion, this does not necessarily conflict with the interests of the large groups in the petroindustry, which are changing in the medium term and will apply their structures and expertise in the field of renewable fuels.
The frustration in the field of biofuels is great if you have witnessed the developments of the last few years. In relation to the development of an entire industry, however, 2 years is not much. The crises have been used very well and I feel that there are no more fundamental problems to be seen on the horizon and a calmer sea is in sight. This belief is not based on blind optimism, but on a rational weighing of the facts and scenarios I know.